Article 33 Indonesia held knowledge circulation activities regarding the Theory of Change to share knowledge with Article 33 Indonesia colleagues. This activity is carried out offline on Wednesday (18/01/2022), and filled by speakers from the Article 33 research team, namely Salsabila Kusumawardani and Ciro Danuza who participated in the conference Indonesian Regional Science Association (IRSA) in Lombok and attended training on Impact Evaluation.
This activity continues the previous material about discussion of program evaluation components and linking Theory of Change (theory of change (ToC)) to the program evaluation cycle. In this knowledge circulation, the speaker explains how to build a Theory of Change and explains why a Theory of Change is important. In building a Theory of Change, there are six steps that must be taken, namely; analyzing situations – determining context, clarifying program objectives, designing programs/products, mapping change pathways, explaining assumptions, and designing SMART indicators.
Situation analysis must be carried out to determine the context of an existing problem, seen from two sides, namely the supply side (supplies) and demand side (demand), so that the perspective in understanding the situation is not unequal and looks at the demands of the target community in preparing this program. The program/product design carried out is also expected to answer the situation analysis from the supply side (supplies) and demand side (demand). When we understand program and product design, we then map out the path of changes that can be made, using the Input, Output, Intermediate Results and Objectives components.
Until that stage, the Theory of Change being designed is still in an ideal situation, while the situation in carrying out an intervention will be dynamic. So, necessary identify assumptions to understand or predict future challenges. Then, the final stage that must be done is to measure the changes that have occurred. Indicators are required for each component in the Theory of Change (Goals, Results, Output, Input, and Assumptions). The indicator in question is the SMART indicator which consists of:
- Specific – Describes the concept concretely
- Measurable – can be quantified, accurate and reliable, sensitive to change
- Achievable – can realistically be achieved by the program
- Relevant – best suits the program objectives
- Time Bound – measured over a certain period of time
From all the stages and methods of creating a theory of change, there is an explanation of the importance of a Theory of Change. The Input and Output components are a reference in considering the processes carried out when running a program, and the Intermediate Results and Objectives components are components that help us to be results-oriented. Apart from that, Theory of Change also overcomes the black box problem or an obstacle/challenge that comes when we implement a program. We will also be able to identify theoretical failures and implementation failures, implementations that fail when starting from input have failed to be implemented, so that activities, outputs, results and goals fail. It's different when the theory fails, the input, activities and output are successfully implemented but our results and goals fail.
Therefore, this Theory of Change explains explicitly how the program can have an impact. In addition, this framework also helps to clarify assumptions, identify indicators and determine objectives. Finally, this framework guides in measuring program progress and designing survey strategies.
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